Overcoming Green Ballot Box Blues2009-06-05

 In the midst of the federal government’s unparalleled financial commitment to creating a clean energy economy, unanimity across the political spectrum that importing Middle Eastern oil is dangerous to both national security and the planet and poll numbers that show American’s awareness about the environment at an all-time high: voters still give ballot measures dubbed “green” decidedly mixed results.

Earlier this year, Los Angeles voters (hardly a conservative lot) turned down Measure B, which would have reduced its utility’s reliance on fossil fuels by installing and maintaining rooftop solar panels on commercial, industrial and government buildings.

In August, Seattle voters —84% of whom supported Barack Obama--are likely to give thumbs down to a 20¢ tax on plastic and paper bags to help reduce the city’s waste stream, according to early polling. 

What seems like a paradox is really a simple matter of Newtonian physics: that is, causes draped in green are still subject to the same laws of gravity that govern every other measure in which voters (or consumers) are given the opportunity to express their opinion.

So what are the lessons to be learned when promoting green?

1)            Test your issue as a choice between priorities rather than in a vacuum. One of the most common mistakes made by supporters of green companies and ideas is mistaking a statement of principle as an equally strong statement of support among competing alternatives. Everyone will tell a pollster they want clean air and water--just like they want to be able to eat unlimited amounts of ice cream--but those policy choices (or diets) come with consequences. Pitting real world possibilities against the hoped-for outcomes is harsh reality but the only way to see if your ideas line up with the public’s values.

2)            Pies don’t fly in the sky— It makes no difference if you are stumping for tax incentives for a wind farm or votes on the first Tuesday in November; everyone who is potentially on the hook for your green idea expects it to pencil out. When both of these aforementioned measures were rolled out for the public, neither could give a full accounting for how much it would cost or how they would be administered. Even worse, they papered over these concerns not with real-world numbers but by waving a green flag to circle the wagons—sacrificing long-term environmental credibility for a narrow short-term policy fix.

3)            The messenger matters as much as the message—In our populist republic, whether the arena is corporate or electoral, citizen inspired movements and initiatives are seen in a different light than those handed down by government or board directive; yet both of these measures were seen as city government brainchildren that were hatched without a full public vetting before going to the voters for ratification (in the case of Measure B) or likely repeal (in the case of the bag tax).

4)    Timing is everything. The late British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan famously replied when asked by a journalist what has the greatest impact on elections: “Events, dear boy. Events. 

In the midst of the nation’s worst recession in 70 years, dismissing cost concerns (even for worthwhile causes) makes government look like it’s detached from the realities and fears their constituents face each day. While any number of green ideas has merit, they all have to be weighed against a larger tableau to gauge its chance for success.

5)    Diversity matters as much as depth—Coalitions are stronger if they bridge ideological divides than larger coalitions of like-minded interest groups. Dozens of environmental groups supporting a green idea is less compelling than business owners, farmers, fishermen or property rights advocates lining up behind the same measure because they aren’t the usual suspects.

Conclusion: Yes, Americans want to reduce their carbon footprint, waste stream and reliance on Middle Eastern oil—but they’ll support those ideas strictly on a case-by-case basis.